MODEL VERDICT
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $69.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $68.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $70.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $70.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $72.74 | Below threshold | -6.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $43.55 | -37.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $42.31 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $39.63 | -42.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $9.43 | -86.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $25.07 | -63.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $52.84 | -23.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $53.66 | -22.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $41.51 | -39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $9.49 | -86.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.01 | -4.5% | 100% | 77 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $65 | $71 | $76 | $82 |
| Conservative (5%) | $60 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $85 |
| Base Case (0.9%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $81 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.88 | 48.93 | 25.05 | 52.47 | 10.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.48 | 43.68 | 23.22 | 50.29 | 9.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.71 | 27.31 | 16.70 | 35.24 | 6.13 |
| P/FCF | 177.32 | 69.08 | 47.02 | 616.55 | 246.53 |
| P/FFO | 25.09 | 24.64 | 14.68 | 34.78 | 7.83 |
| P/TBV | 9.42 | 7.92 | 3.29 | 15.25 | 4.76 |
| P/AFFO | 123.06 | 132.87 | 50.01 | 186.32 | 68.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.55 | 6.23 | 2.74 | 10.55 | 2.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 4.07 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates FND's fair value at $66.01 vs the current price of $69.09, implying -4.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.54 (P10) to $67.77 (P90), with a median of $53.49.
FND's current P/E of 36.0x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +74.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover FND with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $76.00 (range: $64.00 — $88.00), implying +10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (21), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (20), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FND's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7470.0% to approximately $121. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.