MODEL VERDICT
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $50.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $51.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $54.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $53.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $51.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $26.49 | -47.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $10.74 | -78.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $37.60 | -25.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $8.08 | -84.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $9.25 | -81.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $26.31 | -48.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $49.38 | -2.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $37.69 | -25.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $8.06 | -84.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.58 | -9.9% | 100% | 71 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Base Case (0.9%) | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $54 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.88 | 48.93 | 25.05 | 52.47 | 10.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.75 | 42.39 | 23.22 | 50.29 | 9.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.17 | 26.04 | 16.70 | 35.24 | 6.73 |
| P/FCF | 177.31 | 69.08 | 47.02 | 616.55 | 246.54 |
| P/FFO | 25.11 | 24.64 | 14.85 | 34.78 | 7.79 |
| P/TBV | 9.42 | 7.92 | 3.29 | 15.25 | 4.76 |
| P/AFFO | 123.75 | 132.87 | 52.08 | 186.32 | 67.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.55 | 6.23 | 2.74 | 10.55 | 2.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 4.07 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates FND's fair value at $45.58 vs the current price of $50.57, implying -9.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.83 (P10) to $53.05 (P90), with a median of $38.93.
FND's current P/E of 26.3x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +34.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover FND with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $63.18 (range: $51.00 — $75.00), implying +24.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (22), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FND's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19110.0% to approximately $147. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.