MODEL VERDICT
Armata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARMP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $8.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $12.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $11.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $12.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $11.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $0.52 | -94.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.24 | -74.8% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 10.86 | 9.59 | 0.71 | 30.73 | 12.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.25 | 1.78 | 0.46 | 5.20 | 1.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 27.10 | 25.81 | 7.72 | 59.53 | 20.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARMP's fair value at $2.24 vs the current price of $8.89, implying -74.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.19 (P10) to $1.53 (P90), with a median of $0.84.
ARMP's current P/E of -17.0x compares to the industry median of 18.9x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -189.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover ARMP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +68.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARMP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.