MODEL VERDICT
Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 106 industry peers | $4.21 | -77.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 106 industry peers | $0.66 | -96.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $384.73 | +1979.6% | 100% | 42 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 10.66 | 11.50 | 0.99 | 19.50 | 9.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.72 | 5.60 | 0.94 | 16.63 | 8.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 8746.13 | 384.06 | 61.03 | 34155.37 | 16941.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARQQ's fair value at $384.73 vs the current price of $18.50, implying +1979.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 42/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $384.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
ARQQ's current P/E of -1.7x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -107.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover ARQQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $60.00 — $60.00), implying +224.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 42/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARQQ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.