MODEL VERDICT
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $17.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 2 REIT peers | $20.90 | +17.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $22.91 | +29.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $16.57 | -6.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $27.74 | +56.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $23.29 | +31.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $0.10 | -99.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $18.51 | +4.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.35 | +178.4% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $14 | $17 | $24 | $31 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $14 | $18 | $25 | $32 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $15 | $18 | $25 | $33 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $15 | $19 | $26 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 71.91 | 20.03 | 1.33 | 316.12 | 136.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 71.91 | 20.03 | 1.33 | 316.12 | 136.83 |
| P/FCF | 19.19 | 6.26 | 3.76 | 67.12 | 27.05 |
| P/TBV | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 34.61 | 4.10 | 1.28 | 160.99 | 70.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARR's fair value at $49.35 vs the current price of $17.73, implying +178.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.22 (P10) to $134.22 (P90), with a median of $44.54.
ARR's current P/E of 5.4x compares to the industry median of 8.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -36.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover ARR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.25 (range: $18.00 — $18.50), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (15), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2390.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.