MODEL VERDICT
Artesian Resources Corporation (ARTNA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $32.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $32.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $32.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $33.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $32.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $42.43 | +32.3% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $40.05 | +24.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $43.69 | +36.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $39.18 | +22.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $30.30 | -5.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $23.26 | -27.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $33.84 | +5.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $42.42 | +32.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.05 | +28.0% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| Base Case (4.4%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.45 | 23.26 | 15.97 | 30.83 | 4.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.64 | 19.10 | 13.80 | 25.26 | 3.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.44 | 16.28 | 12.66 | 20.60 | 2.42 |
| P/FFO | 13.69 | 13.49 | 9.57 | 18.14 | 2.61 |
| P/TBV | 2.14 | 2.11 | 1.37 | 2.99 | 0.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 2.11 | 1.36 | 2.96 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.25 | 4.15 | 3.02 | 5.62 | 0.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARTNA's fair value at $41.05 vs the current price of $32.07, implying +28.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.58 (P10) to $45.60 (P90), with a median of $42.48.
ARTNA's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -24.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover ARTNA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.2% is 2.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (18.2%), with a Z-score of +2.7σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$42. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARTNA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.7σ, meaning margins are 2.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3060.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.