MODEL VERDICT
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $302.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $317.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $337.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $342.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $347.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $371.83 | +22.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $7557.64 | +2394.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $8328.53 | +2649.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $3835.76 | +1166.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $5313.30 | +1653.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $1527.00 | +404.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $15510.50 | +5020.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $4839.04 | +1497.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $4810.54 | +1488.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $8030.83 | +2551.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $3436.28 | +1034.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3269.35 | +979.2% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $4456 | $5267 | $6077 | $6887 | $7697 |
| Conservative (26%) | $4838 | $5718 | $6597 | $7477 | $8357 |
| Base Case (39.7%) | $5372 | $6349 | $7326 | $8303 | $9279 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $5907 | $6981 | $8055 | $9129 | $10203 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.09 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 2.51 | 0.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.46 | 1.29 | 0.05 | 4.38 | 1.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.08 | 1.05 | 0.05 | 2.62 | 0.86 |
| P/FCF | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.65 | 1.92 | 0.48 |
| P/FFO | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.49 | 1.27 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 2.15 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 8.55 | 2.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.92 | 0.66 | 0.40 | 2.47 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASR's fair value at $3269.35 vs the current price of $302.94, implying +979.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3269.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2600.70 (P10) to $3306.47 (P90), with a median of $2947.70.
ASR's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -36.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover ASR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $365.00 (range: $365.00 — $365.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (14), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASR trades at the 5560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (50.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12730.0% to approximately $689. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.