MODEL VERDICT
Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $64.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $59.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $59.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $59.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $61.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $93.40 | +45.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $64.29 | +0.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $54.91 | -14.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $25.93 | -59.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $56.63 | -11.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $20.00 | -68.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $88.37 | +37.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $83.80 | +30.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $54.91 | -14.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $24.67 | -61.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.28 | +0.2% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 |
| Conservative (5%) | $56 | $62 | $67 | $72 | $78 |
| Base Case (-3.9%) | $52 | $57 | $61 | $66 | $71 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 66.57 | 35.55 | 25.31 | 176.84 | 61.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.96 | 23.78 | 9.70 | 46.90 | 12.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.54 | 16.52 | 11.69 | 29.11 | 6.82 |
| P/FCF | 93.77 | 28.72 | 10.50 | 307.14 | 143.27 |
| P/FFO | 22.61 | 19.78 | 13.38 | 34.56 | 8.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 2.69 | 0.52 |
| P/AFFO | 42.95 | 36.16 | 23.03 | 72.44 | 19.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.48 | 1.20 | 2.44 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 1.45 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASTE's fair value at $64.28 vs the current price of $64.16, implying +0.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.85 (P10) to $86.07 (P90), with a median of $70.23.
ASTE's current P/E of 38.2x compares to the industry median of 32.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +16.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 66.6x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
12 analysts cover ASTE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying -43.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASTE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13890.0% to approximately $153. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.