Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL)
Valuation Overview•Is Algoma Steel Group Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 13/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
ASTL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-9.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-53.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $296.9M | +22.3% | -9.1% | +3.0% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$120.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$159.4M | -536.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.46 | -342.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$26.1M | -56.6% | -36.2% | -44.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -20.6% | -8.5% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Operating Margin | -53.4% | -14.4% | 0.9% | -2.2% |
| Net Margin | -40.4% | -17.5% | -3.9% | -7.3% |
| FCF Margin | -20.1% | -12.1% | -2.6% | -2.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.78 | $-1.06 | -35.9% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-0.84 | $-1.05 | -24.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.32 | $-2.11 | -759.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.70 | $0.12 | +117.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.45 | $-0.74 | -64.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.69 | $-0.33 | +52.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.70 | $-0.44 | +37.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.28 | $-0.68 | -142.9% |
Total return is -42.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -62.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +1.8% | -5.5% | — |
| 1Y | -42.1% | -62.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -15.0% | -32.2% | +6.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -14.2% | -25.0% | +6.9% |
| 10YCAGR | -7.0% | -20.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.0x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) valuation, health, and returns.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. valuation is being assessed using available models.
Valuation anchors are currently not available.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 13/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.0 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -36.5%.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. pays a 2.4% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +22.3% 1Y revenue growth and -342.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -9.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Algoma Steel Group Inc. include: -55.1% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.23x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.23x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.