MODEL VERDICT
Adtalem Global Education Inc. (ATGE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $106.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $106.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $106.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $106.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $106.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $117.95 | +10.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $101.48 | -4.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $104.38 | -2.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $126.60 | +18.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $96.33 | -9.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $129.12 | +21.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $74.52 | -30.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $59.91 | -43.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $87.02 | -18.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $103.76 | -2.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $126.91 | +19.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $112.05 | +5.1% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $87 | $100 | $112 | $124 | $137 |
| Conservative (5%) | $89 | $102 | $115 | $127 | $140 |
| Base Case (6.2%) | $90 | $103 | $116 | $129 | $142 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $92 | $105 | $118 | $131 | $145 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.21 | 18.44 | 7.54 | 28.76 | 7.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.70 | 14.63 | 8.25 | 15.79 | 2.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.10 | 11.54 | 9.50 | 15.57 | 2.27 |
| P/FCF | 16.53 | 14.82 | 10.64 | 28.90 | 6.34 |
| P/FFO | 12.57 | 13.72 | 3.79 | 17.27 | 4.61 |
| P/AFFO | 17.73 | 18.22 | 4.07 | 27.63 | 7.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.02 | 2.77 | 0.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.24 | 2.31 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATGE's fair value at $112.05 vs the current price of $106.64, implying +5.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $112.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.87 (P10) to $123.96 (P90), with a median of $112.75.
ATGE's current P/E of 17.6x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover ATGE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $138.00 (range: $138.00 — $138.00), implying +29.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ATGE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2550.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.