MODEL VERDICT
ATI Inc. (ATI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $155.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $154.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $164.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $156.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $162.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $80.43 | -48.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $89.30 | -42.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $139.49 | -10.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $141.70 | -8.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $102.21 | -34.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $145.12 | -6.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $54.86 | -64.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $59.24 | -61.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $133.85 | -13.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $124.80 | -19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.60 | -32.6% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $136 | $148 | $160 | $172 | $184 |
| Conservative (7%) | $140 | $152 | $164 | $176 | $188 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $144 | $157 | $169 | $182 | $194 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $149 | $162 | $175 | $188 | $201 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.17 | 14.79 | 11.41 | 40.27 | 10.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.16 | 16.98 | 8.66 | 64.61 | 19.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.71 | 13.00 | 7.60 | 22.01 | 4.66 |
| P/FCF | 52.71 | 48.77 | 48.03 | 69.78 | 9.55 |
| P/FFO | 13.63 | 11.47 | 6.53 | 28.43 | 8.09 |
| P/TBV | 5.33 | 4.85 | 1.82 | 9.83 | 2.51 |
| P/AFFO | 24.69 | 17.46 | 12.86 | 55.77 | 16.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.04 | 3.90 | 1.38 | 8.49 | 2.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.18 | 0.71 | 3.55 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATI's fair value at $104.60 vs the current price of $155.26, implying -32.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.00 (P10) to $111.75 (P90), with a median of $98.69.
ATI's current P/E of 54.5x compares to the industry median of 48.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +11.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
29 analysts cover ATI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $173.40 (range: $141.00 — $194.00), implying +11.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ATI trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ATI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6070.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.