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Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$57.21
→
Intrinsic$6.99
-88%
$3.09$6.99$14.39
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $3 → Bull $14. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $14).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $9 | $11 | $12 | $14 |
| 10% | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| 12% | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
| 14% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($14) with 10% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($3) implies 95% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 88% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($14) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$61.34M
Year 2$66.25M
Year 3$71.55M
Year 4$77.28M
Year 5$83.46M
Terminal$1.23B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$56.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.