MODEL VERDICT
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $188.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $185.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $186.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $186.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $190.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $158.53 | -15.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $122.80 | -34.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $118.87 | -37.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $154.02 | -18.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $142.74 | -24.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $155.39 | -17.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $61.07 | -67.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $158.53 | -15.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $148.44 | -21.3% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $162 | $178 | $193 | $209 | $224 |
| Conservative (6%) | $166 | $181 | $197 | $213 | $229 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $170 | $187 | $203 | $219 | $235 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $175 | $192 | $209 | $225 | $242 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.08 | 20.39 | 19.00 | 25.71 | 2.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.00 | 21.83 | 19.82 | 24.92 | 1.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.87 | 15.04 | 13.14 | 16.34 | 1.04 |
| P/FFO | 12.47 | 11.90 | 11.29 | 14.55 | 1.28 |
| P/TBV | 1.98 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.62 | 0.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.81 | 1.73 | 1.55 | 2.29 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.45 | 4.16 | 3.68 | 5.72 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATO's fair value at $148.44 vs the current price of $188.54, implying -21.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $148.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.40 (P10) to $152.22 (P90), with a median of $143.69.
ATO's current P/E of 25.3x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +18.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
20 analysts cover ATO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $179.00 (range: $167.00 — $195.00), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 25.7% is 4.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (21.1%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$130. (2) Multiple compression: ATO trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ATO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3130.0% to approximately $130. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.