MODEL VERDICT
American Vanguard Corporation (AVD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $5.17 | +4.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $27.80 | +463.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $24.64 | +399.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.80 | +139.3% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.69 | 28.65 | 18.75 | 42.33 | 9.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.33 | 19.19 | 14.02 | 27.88 | 5.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.73 | 10.75 | 9.44 | 16.29 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 9.32 | 6.53 | 6.20 | 15.24 | 5.13 |
| P/FFO | 12.78 | 12.11 | 10.59 | 17.91 | 2.77 |
| P/TBV | 3.81 | 3.91 | 2.06 | 5.82 | 1.34 |
| P/AFFO | 23.61 | 20.97 | 14.36 | 37.54 | 8.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.26 | 1.34 | 0.56 | 1.75 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 1.23 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVD's fair value at $11.80 vs the current price of $4.93, implying +139.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.92 (P10) to $12.63 (P90), with a median of $10.27.
AVD's current P/E of -1.1x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -104.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover AVD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $14.00 — $20.00), implying +244.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AVD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.