MODEL VERDICT
Avantor, Inc. (AVTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $8.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $8.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $16.31 | +104.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $19.36 | +143.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $15.49 | +94.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $29.35 | +268.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $33.22 | +317.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $19.25 | +141.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.13 | +115.2% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 90.41 | 48.57 | 20.26 | 312.78 | 125.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.02 | 27.63 | 16.93 | 56.85 | 14.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.17 | 18.90 | 12.19 | 69.30 | 20.35 |
| P/FCF | 21.58 | 20.76 | 15.73 | 29.99 | 4.49 |
| P/FFO | 20.45 | 19.04 | 12.86 | 32.08 | 7.73 |
| P/AFFO | 23.68 | 22.88 | 14.84 | 36.46 | 8.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 6.14 | 1.82 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.09 | 2.12 | 1.19 | 3.42 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVTR's fair value at $17.13 vs the current price of $7.96, implying +115.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.52 (P10) to $14.58 (P90), with a median of $13.03.
AVTR's current P/E of -10.2x compares to the industry median of 33.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -130.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 90.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover AVTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $7.00 — $11.00), implying +19.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AVTR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.