MODEL VERDICT
Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $163.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $165.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $172.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $168.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $171.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $122.73 | -24.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $84.72 | -48.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $129.16 | -20.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $116.05 | -28.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $143.10 | -12.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $169.95 | +4.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $61.79 | -62.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $131.30 | -19.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $121.01 | -25.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $129.16 | -20.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $116.05 | -28.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $143.22 | -12.2% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $135 | $153 | $171 | $189 | $207 |
| Conservative (5%) | $138 | $157 | $175 | $194 | $212 |
| Base Case (5.8%) | $139 | $158 | $176 | $195 | $214 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $142 | $161 | $180 | $199 | $218 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.58 | 23.47 | 19.65 | 36.64 | 6.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.62 | 18.47 | 16.44 | 39.37 | 8.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.88 | 13.08 | 12.45 | 16.43 | 1.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.41 | 22.73 | 19.76 | 30.31 | 3.44 |
| P/FFO | 17.61 | 17.14 | 14.20 | 23.04 | 3.26 |
| P/AFFO | 25.36 | 23.30 | 18.48 | 42.25 | 8.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.89 | 7.70 | 6.28 | 9.43 | 1.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.79 | 1.72 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVY's fair value at $143.22 vs the current price of $163.03, implying -12.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $143.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $137.37 (P10) to $160.87 (P90), with a median of $149.00.
AVY's current P/E of 18.6x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +26.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
18 analysts cover AVY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $214.75 (range: $192.00 — $224.00), implying +31.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9210.0% to approximately $313. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.