MODEL VERDICT
American States Water Company (AWR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $75.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $79.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $75.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $75.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $79.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $70.57 | -6.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $86.49 | +15.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $66.11 | -12.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $66.76 | -11.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $112.91 | +50.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $48.99 | -34.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $109.56 | +45.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $70.57 | -6.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.24 | +20.0% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $63 | $69 | $76 | $83 | $90 |
| Conservative (5%) | $64 | $71 | $78 | $85 | $92 |
| Base Case (7.7%) | $65 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $67 | $74 | $82 | $89 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.36 | 34.12 | 21.51 | 43.86 | 8.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.54 | 26.58 | 18.57 | 32.20 | 5.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.64 | 20.82 | 11.66 | 24.69 | 4.92 |
| P/FFO | 22.69 | 23.79 | 15.73 | 28.54 | 5.50 |
| P/TBV | 4.29 | 4.59 | 2.68 | 5.59 | 1.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.29 | 4.58 | 2.68 | 5.58 | 1.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.94 | 6.02 | 4.26 | 7.67 | 1.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AWR's fair value at $90.24 vs the current price of $75.21, implying +20.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.43 (P10) to $98.81 (P90), with a median of $90.79.
AWR's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +6.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover AWR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.50 (range: $87.00 — $92.00), implying +19.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AWR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3280.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.