MODEL VERDICT
AZZ Inc. (AZZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $150.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $137.71 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $135.51 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $137.90 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $141.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $134.22 | -11.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $186.70 | +23.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $278.63 | +84.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $421.95 | +179.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $178.12 | +18.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $415.92 | +175.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $491.56 | +225.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $67.13 | -55.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $59.61 | -60.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $278.25 | +84.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $421.27 | +179.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $259.75 | +72.1% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 | $225 |
| Conservative (31%) | $137 | $165 | $192 | $220 | $247 |
| Base Case (47.2%) | $155 | $185 | $216 | $247 | $278 |
| Bull Case (64%) | $172 | $206 | $241 | $275 | $309 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.68 | 24.73 | 12.00 | 59.88 | 17.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.39 | 15.97 | 12.81 | 34.30 | 7.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.40 | 11.12 | 9.26 | 20.65 | 3.87 |
| P/FCF | 30.56 | 17.50 | 10.25 | 111.31 | 36.11 |
| P/FFO | 20.87 | 12.67 | 8.68 | 67.12 | 20.72 |
| P/TBV | 10.51 | 7.77 | 5.04 | 21.45 | 7.42 |
| P/AFFO | 23.97 | 21.85 | 11.50 | 41.58 | 11.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.30 | 2.21 | 1.51 | 3.41 | 0.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.10 | 3.00 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AZZ's fair value at $259.75 vs the current price of $150.89, implying +72.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $259.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $199.32 (P10) to $292.73 (P90), with a median of $239.81.
AZZ's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 26.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -45.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover AZZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $153.50 (range: $152.00 — $155.00), implying +1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AZZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3870.0% to approximately $209. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.