MODEL VERDICT
Barings BDC, Inc. (BBDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $9.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $9.37 | +1.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $9.31 | +0.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $9.31 | +0.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $48.09 | +421.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $9.37 | +1.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $8.32 | -9.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.28 | +65.5% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $14 | $16 |
| Conservative (27%) | $7 | $10 | $12 | $15 | $17 |
| Base Case (41.7%) | $8 | $11 | $14 | $16 | $19 |
| Bull Case (56%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.60 | 9.26 | 7.15 | 179.12 | 63.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.26 | 20.53 | 10.67 | 158.21 | 53.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.26 | 20.53 | 10.67 | 158.21 | 53.63 |
| P/FCF | 9.06 | 9.15 | 6.01 | 11.94 | 2.46 |
| P/FFO | 8.12 | 6.63 | 0.05 | 17.67 | 8.90 |
| P/TBV | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.81 | 4.84 | 3.18 | 12.09 | 3.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBDC's fair value at $15.28 vs the current price of $9.23, implying +65.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.45 (P10) to $27.71 (P90), with a median of $16.51.
BBDC's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 9.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -1.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover BBDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.50 (range: $12.50 — $12.50), implying +35.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBDC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 34160.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.