MODEL VERDICT
Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $31.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $30.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $29.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $29.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $28.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $29.66 | -5.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $43.19 | +37.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $42.60 | +35.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $40.98 | +30.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $19.19 | -38.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $52.31 | +66.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $84.82 | +170.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $42.15 | +34.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.24 | +21.7% | 100% | 72 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| Base Case (4.7%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.30 | 14.41 | 11.54 | 21.94 | 3.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.17 | 10.81 | 9.23 | 15.94 | 2.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.56 | 10.97 | 9.26 | 16.71 | 2.56 |
| P/FCF | 22.19 | 12.41 | 6.83 | 57.10 | 23.47 |
| P/FFO | 13.56 | 13.35 | 10.35 | 19.15 | 2.72 |
| P/TBV | 5.09 | 5.24 | 3.28 | 6.68 | 1.28 |
| P/AFFO | 17.27 | 17.28 | 11.96 | 24.99 | 4.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.70 | 3.79 | 2.52 | 5.24 | 0.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 1.01 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBSI's fair value at $38.24 vs the current price of $31.42, implying +21.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.54 (P10) to $43.32 (P90), with a median of $37.52.
BBSI's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -26.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover BBSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $46.00 — $46.00), implying +46.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BBSI trades at the 3000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2220.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.