MODEL VERDICT
Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $161.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $173.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $177.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $174.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $174.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $74.64 | -53.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $100.44 | -37.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $104.93 | -35.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $87.61 | -45.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $101.91 | -36.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $89.36 | -44.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $57.68 | -64.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $44.78 | -72.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $42.79 | -73.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $103.02 | -36.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $87.41 | -45.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.38 | -45.9% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $140 | $155 | $170 | $185 | $200 |
| Conservative (8%) | $144 | $160 | $175 | $190 | $206 |
| Base Case (12.8%) | $150 | $166 | $182 | $198 | $214 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $156 | $173 | $189 | $206 | $223 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.70 | 41.48 | 32.29 | 57.35 | 7.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.64 | 31.85 | 24.46 | 43.26 | 5.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.93 | 23.59 | 19.42 | 31.31 | 3.62 |
| P/FCF | 36.36 | 34.39 | 28.89 | 44.82 | 6.20 |
| P/FFO | 28.82 | 27.56 | 25.00 | 37.99 | 4.52 |
| P/TBV | 31.28 | 23.68 | 18.00 | 57.55 | 15.80 |
| P/AFFO | 38.17 | 36.99 | 31.94 | 51.23 | 6.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.66 | 4.52 | 3.98 | 6.28 | 0.75 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.31 | 5.23 | 4.20 | 6.89 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCPC's fair value at $87.38 vs the current price of $161.52, implying -45.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.92 (P10) to $128.95 (P90), with a median of $118.82.
BCPC's current P/E of 34.0x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +53.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover BCPC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $162.00 (range: $162.00 — $162.00), implying +0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.9% is 3.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.1%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$232. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BCPC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4350.0% to approximately $232. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.