MODEL VERDICT
KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 3 REIT peers | $168.77 | +889.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $205.03 | +1101.8% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $18.85 | +10.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $78.61 | +360.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $169.18 | +891.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $88.85 | +420.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $254.77 | +1393.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $150.03 | +779.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $76.10 | +346.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $132.74 | +678.1% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $100 | $111 | $122 | $133 | $144 |
| Conservative (7%) | $103 | $114 | $125 | $136 | $147 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $106 | $118 | $129 | $140 | $152 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $110 | $121 | $133 | $145 | $157 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.25 | 5.34 | 3.31 | 64.10 | 34.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.72 | 8.41 | 2.26 | 12.49 | 5.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 143.38 | 9.57 | 2.88 | 683.56 | 302.00 |
| P/FCF | 5.21 | 2.58 | 1.90 | 10.99 | 4.21 |
| P/FFO | 39.11 | 18.08 | 2.68 | 142.38 | 58.67 |
| P/TBV | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 1.14 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 10.58 | 5.38 | 3.04 | 23.31 | 11.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1.07 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1.01 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BEKE's fair value at $132.74 vs the current price of $17.06, implying +678.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $132.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $102.38 (P10) to $191.43 (P90), with a median of $140.27.
BEKE's current P/E of 33.8x compares to the industry median of 25.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +31.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.3x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover BEKE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.13 (range: $19.00 — $24.40), implying +29.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BEKE trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BEKE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (0.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1220.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.