MODEL VERDICT
Bilibili Inc. (BILI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $22.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $79.61 | +262.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $57.43 | +161.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $246.34 | +1022.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $252.79 | +1051.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $196.80 | +796.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $190.54 | +768.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $246.81 | +1024.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $135.38 | +516.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.83 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 7.18 | 2.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 3.81 | 1.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.22 | 2.47 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates BILI's fair value at $135.38 vs the current price of $21.95, implying +516.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $135.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $103.77 (P10) to $176.18 (P90), with a median of $138.96.
BILI's current P/E of -46.4x compares to the industry median of 34.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -235.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover BILI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $34.00 — $34.00), implying +54.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BILI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.