MODEL VERDICT
Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $256.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $287.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $299.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $295.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $279.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $194.42 | -24.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $225.96 | -11.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $1129.62 | +340.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $364.87 | +42.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $238.36 | -7.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $320.63 | +25.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $355.94 | +38.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $361.87 | +41.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $1095.08 | +326.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $362.75 | +41.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $372.79 | +45.3% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $142 | $199 | $256 | $313 | $370 |
| Conservative (5%) | $146 | $205 | $263 | $322 | $380 |
| Base Case (-26.1%) | $103 | $144 | $185 | $227 | $268 |
| Bull Case (-35%) | $90 | $126 | $163 | $199 | $235 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.80 | 5.86 | 4.62 | 10.87 | 2.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.69 | 4.51 | 3.47 | 34.25 | 15.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.60 | 24.14 | 19.47 | 35.39 | 5.89 |
| P/FCF | 52.38 | 36.90 | 22.07 | 155.99 | 46.25 |
| P/FFO | 6.00 | 5.49 | 4.45 | 8.56 | 1.80 |
| P/TBV | 1.59 | 1.58 | 1.18 | 2.09 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 6.56 | 5.72 | 4.57 | 10.23 | 2.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.47 | 1.41 | 1.08 | 1.94 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.91 | 4.47 | 3.20 | 7.81 | 1.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BIO's fair value at $372.79 vs the current price of $256.55, implying +45.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $372.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $320.78 (P10) to $467.33 (P90), with a median of $390.46.
BIO's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -77.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover BIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $312.50 (range: $290.00 — $335.00), implying +21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BIO trades at the 320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BIO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7220.0% to approximately $71. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.