MODEL VERDICT
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $37.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $38.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $39.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $37.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $34.76 | -7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $38.02 | +1.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $14.50 | -61.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $17.86 | -52.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $7.77 | -79.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $72.01 | +92.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $58.60 | +56.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $14.50 | -61.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $17.73 | -52.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.39 | -16.0% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Base Case (-20.5%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.61 | 43.91 | 17.25 | 155.18 | 56.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.81 | 58.60 | 18.78 | 95.26 | 40.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 | 15.52 | 9.04 | 22.90 | 4.84 |
| P/FCF | 46.59 | 33.99 | 15.17 | 124.44 | 44.34 |
| P/FFO | 15.42 | 9.34 | 6.67 | 53.45 | 16.83 |
| P/TBV | 2.58 | 2.43 | 1.83 | 3.58 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 34.19 | 26.00 | 18.11 | 66.65 | 22.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.54 | 2.40 | 1.81 | 3.53 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 1.05 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates BJRI's fair value at $31.39 vs the current price of $37.37, implying -16.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.13 (P10) to $38.59 (P90), with a median of $31.98.
BJRI's current P/E of 53.4x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +157.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover BJRI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.50 (range: $39.00 — $42.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BJRI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.