MODEL VERDICT
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $12.95 | +118.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $21.98 | +271.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $1.97 | -66.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $22.67 | +282.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $17.45 | +194.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $60.37 | +919.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $38.72 | +554.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $1.98 | -66.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $23.85 | +302.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.49 | +634.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.59 | 15.22 | 10.49 | 61.70 | 21.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 162.52 | 22.79 | 13.51 | 859.37 | 341.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 117.23 | 10.25 | 7.86 | 763.13 | 284.82 |
| P/FCF | 31.98 | 11.58 | 5.48 | 141.84 | 49.29 |
| P/FFO | 18.59 | 6.52 | 2.83 | 78.84 | 27.29 |
| P/AFFO | 38.09 | 20.20 | 8.83 | 87.73 | 34.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 28.46 | 7.52 | 1.56 | 155.03 | 55.89 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.13 | 0.65 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLMN's fair value at $43.49 vs the current price of $5.92, implying +634.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.74 (P10) to $133.66 (P90), with a median of $45.62.
BLMN's current P/E of 59.2x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +200.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover BLMN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.50 (range: $7.00 — $10.00), implying +43.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BLMN trades at the 8150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BLMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 41860.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.