MODEL VERDICT
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $121.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $121.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $115.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $157.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $155.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $93.87 | -23.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $117.12 | -4.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $114.71 | -6.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $138.99 | +13.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $122.98 | +0.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $148.16 | +21.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $219.88 | +80.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $104.81 | -14.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $95.76 | -21.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $113.36 | -7.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $139.22 | +14.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $151.67 | +24.3% | 100% | 92 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $110 | $120 | $131 | $141 | $152 |
| Conservative (15%) | $116 | $127 | $138 | $149 | $160 |
| Base Case (23.2%) | $124 | $136 | $148 | $159 | $171 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $132 | $145 | $157 | $170 | $182 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.31 | 49.16 | 36.41 | 55.66 | 6.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.09 | 36.94 | 26.14 | 41.18 | 5.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.20 | 28.51 | 21.47 | 31.40 | 3.78 |
| P/FCF | 37.34 | 38.71 | 25.91 | 46.35 | 7.50 |
| P/FFO | 34.29 | 35.23 | 26.60 | 39.87 | 4.74 |
| P/TBV | 12.64 | 13.15 | 9.21 | 14.36 | 1.84 |
| P/AFFO | 37.68 | 38.13 | 29.73 | 43.41 | 5.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.82 | 7.61 | 5.73 | 10.33 | 1.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.06 | 6.19 | 4.47 | 7.58 | 0.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BMI's fair value at $151.67 vs the current price of $121.98, implying +24.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $151.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.60 (P10) to $152.94 (P90), with a median of $144.10.
BMI's current P/E of 25.5x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +6.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover BMI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $172.14 (range: $110.00 — $220.00), implying +41.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.4% is 2.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.9%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$189. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BMI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5500.0% to approximately $189. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.