MODEL VERDICT
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $20.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $22.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $22.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $21.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $21.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $4.51 | -78.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $16.57 | -19.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $1.67 | -91.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $75.27 | +264.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $75.53 | +266.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $16.57 | -19.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $1.81 | -91.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.25 | -40.6% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (-2.7%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.04 | 6.31 | 1.78 | 13.34 | 3.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.58 | 11.11 | 4.30 | 35.51 | 10.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.09 | 10.11 | 4.10 | 26.01 | 7.45 |
| P/FCF | 39.20 | 6.27 | 1.63 | 174.81 | 68.07 |
| P/FFO | 5.75 | 5.78 | 1.68 | 9.39 | 2.50 |
| P/TBV | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.42 | 0.99 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 7.61 | 6.66 | 1.79 | 16.78 | 4.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.42 | 0.97 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.47 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates BZH's fair value at $12.25 vs the current price of $20.63, implying -40.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.09 (P10) to $11.24 (P90), with a median of $9.63.
BZH's current P/E of 13.6x compares to the industry median of 10.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +24.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.0x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
21 analysts cover BZH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $37.00 — $45.00), implying +98.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BZH trades at the 5790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BZH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 47780.0% to approximately $119. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.