MODEL VERDICT
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $67.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $60.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $61.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $58.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $63.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $84.97 | +25.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $82.61 | +22.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $77.21 | +14.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $62.79 | -7.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $67.32 | -0.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $56.26 | -16.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $89.23 | +32.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $94.64 | +40.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $74.86 | +10.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $62.34 | -7.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $120.84 | +78.7% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $64 | $69 | $75 | $80 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $66 | $71 | $77 | $82 |
| Base Case (-5.5%) | $55 | $59 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $54 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $72 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.21 | 22.88 | 10.06 | 35.25 | 10.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.63 | 22.99 | 19.82 | 30.46 | 4.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.14 | 18.17 | 9.60 | 20.29 | 4.28 |
| P/FCF | 256.30 | 25.21 | 22.60 | 1414.38 | 567.34 |
| P/FFO | 16.95 | 16.34 | 9.10 | 26.63 | 7.43 |
| P/AFFO | 20.40 | 19.21 | 9.85 | 34.98 | 10.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.86 | 4.72 | 3.17 | 6.81 | 1.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 2.20 | 1.90 | 2.77 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CARR's fair value at $120.84 vs the current price of $67.62, implying +78.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $120.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.62 (P10) to $204.73 (P90), with a median of $100.25.
CARR's current P/E of 39.8x compares to the industry median of 45.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -12.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
26 analysts cover CARR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.50 (range: $55.00 — $79.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CARR trades at the 7650th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CARR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 630.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.