MODEL VERDICT
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. Common Stock (CBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $29.74 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $28.89 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $28.69 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $27.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $42.25 | +37.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $27.66 | -10.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $32.06 | +4.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $5.02 | -83.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $42.25 | +37.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $33.74 | +9.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.23 | +1.5% | 100% | 68 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $27 | $33 | $39 | $46 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $28 | $34 | $40 | $47 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $29 | $35 | $42 | $48 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $30 | $36 | $43 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBK's fair value at $31.23 vs the current price of $30.78, implying +1.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.91 (P10) to $34.75 (P90), with a median of $32.28.
CBK's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -27.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CBK.
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 710.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.