MODEL VERDICT
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $326.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $303.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $300.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $304.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $295.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $209.54 | -35.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $146.57 | -55.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $191.18 | -41.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $209.54 | -35.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $272.16 | -16.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.00 | -38.5% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $284 | $315 | $346 | $377 | $407 |
| Conservative (11%) | $295 | $327 | $359 | $391 | $423 |
| Base Case (16.6%) | $311 | $345 | $378 | $412 | $446 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $327 | $362 | $397 | $432 | $468 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.29 | 26.50 | 21.81 | 57.03 | 12.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.06 | 18.76 | 16.12 | 30.08 | 5.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.16 | 16.47 | 13.73 | 22.59 | 3.07 |
| P/FCF | 20.08 | 22.02 | 7.21 | 25.61 | 6.42 |
| P/FFO | 22.14 | 20.63 | 16.24 | 33.32 | 5.69 |
| P/AFFO | 24.16 | 21.69 | 17.57 | 39.15 | 7.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.96 | 3.88 | 3.04 | 4.82 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.25 | 4.00 | 2.97 | 5.37 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBOE's fair value at $201.00 vs the current price of $326.96, implying -38.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.71 (P10) to $218.64 (P90), with a median of $197.26.
CBOE's current P/E of 45.3x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +56.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover CBOE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $296.00 (range: $273.00 — $321.00), implying -9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (12), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CBOE trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBOE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4530.0% to approximately $179. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.