MODEL VERDICT
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $52.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $50.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $51.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $50.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $50.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $53.40 | +2.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $37.68 | -27.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $48.30 | -7.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $40.62 | -21.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $53.40 | +2.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $46.18 | -11.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.01 | +5.7% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $38 | $47 | $55 | $64 | $72 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $48 | $57 | $66 | $74 |
| Base Case (11.3%) | $41 | $50 | $59 | $68 | $77 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $42 | $52 | $61 | $71 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.97 | 16.10 | 12.83 | 22.62 | 3.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.87 | 12.94 | 10.40 | 17.31 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 | 12.30 | 9.77 | 15.75 | 2.59 |
| P/FCF | 15.40 | 15.75 | 12.27 | 17.34 | 2.00 |
| P/FFO | 15.21 | 14.56 | 12.03 | 19.41 | 2.46 |
| P/TBV | 2.62 | 2.54 | 1.99 | 3.67 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 16.97 | 16.15 | 13.18 | 21.18 | 2.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.48 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 3.44 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.73 | 5.37 | 3.40 | 5.83 | 1.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBSH's fair value at $55.01 vs the current price of $52.03, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.57 (P10) to $59.24 (P90), with a median of $55.31.
CBSH's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 13.1x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -2.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover CBSH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $58.50 (range: $58.50 — $58.50), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBSH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4060.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.