MODEL VERDICT
Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (CCBG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $47.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $45.34 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $45.64 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $46.41 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $45.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $53.69 | +13.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $46.87 | -0.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $47.35 | +0.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $55.04 | +16.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $53.69 | +13.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $42.97 | -8.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.89 | +5.9% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $34 | $42 | $49 | $57 | $65 |
| Conservative (9%) | $35 | $43 | $51 | $59 | $67 |
| Base Case (13.9%) | $37 | $45 | $53 | $62 | $70 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $38 | $47 | $56 | $64 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.25 | 13.07 | 9.59 | 16.67 | 2.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.34 | 9.48 | 7.93 | 14.37 | 2.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.07 | 8.51 | 7.04 | 12.08 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 8.57 | 9.70 | 3.81 | 11.33 | 2.90 |
| P/FFO | 11.17 | 10.85 | 8.30 | 13.85 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.12 | 2.12 | 0.36 |
| P/AFFO | 13.07 | 12.42 | 9.40 | 15.84 | 2.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 1.57 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.44 | 2.37 | 1.95 | 3.21 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCBG's fair value at $49.89 vs the current price of $47.12, implying +5.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.82 (P10) to $51.06 (P90), with a median of $47.89.
CCBG's current P/E of 13.1x compares to the industry median of 14.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -12.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
7 analysts cover CCBG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.50 (range: $49.50 — $49.50), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.0% is 3.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (18.6%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$40. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCBG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1430.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.