MODEL VERDICT
Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $55.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $59.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $62.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $58.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $59.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $53.51 | -3.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $33.67 | -39.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $52.98 | -4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $55.18 | -0.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $78.15 | +40.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $18.79 | -66.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $141.47 | +154.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $161.99 | +191.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $52.97 | -4.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $56.18 | +1.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.69 | -10.5% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $35 | $45 | $55 | $64 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $36 | $46 | $56 | $66 | $77 |
| Base Case (-4.5%) | $32 | $42 | $51 | $60 | $70 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $32 | $41 | $50 | $59 | $68 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.73 | 7.14 | 3.14 | 12.21 | 3.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.11 | 8.25 | 3.58 | 15.88 | 4.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.61 | 7.68 | 3.53 | 10.84 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 13.08 | 10.36 | 4.44 | 27.16 | 10.36 |
| P/FFO | 7.11 | 6.71 | 3.07 | 10.67 | 2.68 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 1.64 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 8.02 | 7.38 | 3.20 | 12.66 | 3.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.60 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.80 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCS's fair value at $49.69 vs the current price of $55.55, implying -10.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.59 (P10) to $59.53 (P90), with a median of $52.80.
CCS's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 10.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +4.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover CCS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.67 (range: $48.00 — $82.00), implying +9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CCS trades at the 4740th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10430.0% to approximately $113. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.