MODEL VERDICT
Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A. (CCU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $11.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $11.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $12.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $12.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $6705.09 | +59713.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $12478.56 | +111216.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $15432.78 | +137569.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $8074.99 | +71933.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $15231.32 | +135772.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $4172.10 | +37117.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $8378.59 | +74642.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $23210.87 | +206955.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22414.76 | +199853.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $15372.93 | +137035.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $7911.09 | +70471.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8374.14 | +74602.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7109 | $8886 | $10663 | $12440 | $14217 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7318 | $9147 | $10976 | $12806 | $14635 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $7269 | $9086 | $10903 | $12720 | $14538 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $7380 | $9225 | $11070 | $12916 | $14761 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.72 | 1.82 | 0.02 | 3.67 | 1.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.53 | 1.38 | 0.02 | 3.67 | 1.52 |
| P/FCF | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/FFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.21 | 0.96 |
| P/AFFO | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.83 | 0.79 |
| Div Yield | 48.44 | 39.08 | 16.12 | 90.42 | 25.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCU's fair value at $8374.14 vs the current price of $11.21, implying +74602.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8374.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6201.64 (P10) to $9447.87 (P90), with a median of $7775.08.
CCU's current P/E of 11.6x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -34.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover CCU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CCU trades at the 2000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15590.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.