MODEL VERDICT
Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.85 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $31.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $64.89 | +117.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $26.01 | -12.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $34.51 | +15.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $48.55 | +62.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $35.31 | +18.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $42.63 | +42.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $21.69 | -27.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $27.03 | -9.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $31.71 | +6.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $55.39 | +85.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.97 | +54.0% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.36 | 40.04 | 32.25 | 125.88 | 38.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.95 | 23.94 | 22.74 | 53.96 | 13.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.02 | 18.08 | 13.03 | 25.97 | 4.82 |
| P/FCF | 27.34 | 19.51 | 17.36 | 49.90 | 13.77 |
| P/FFO | 27.46 | 27.56 | 22.94 | 33.88 | 4.16 |
| P/TBV | 36.28 | 22.49 | 17.32 | 82.83 | 31.14 |
| P/AFFO | 31.85 | 30.87 | 26.17 | 42.85 | 6.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.74 | 5.58 | 4.18 | 8.20 | 1.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.30 | 1.59 | 2.91 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CDRE's fair value at $45.97 vs the current price of $29.85, implying +54.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.40 (P10) to $50.93 (P90), with a median of $44.13.
CDRE's current P/E of 29.3x compares to the industry median of 33.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -13.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.4x over 5 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
9 analysts cover CDRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.50 (range: $50.00 — $53.00), implying +72.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CDRE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16140.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.