Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Valuation Overview•Is Century Aluminum Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 48/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
CENX demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $649.2M | +13.9% | -3.1% | +9.5% | +2.6% | |
| EBITDA | $108.8M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $337.5M | -87.6% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.23 | -87.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$6.4M | +179.3% | — | +23.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 12.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Operating Margin | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | -1.3% |
| Net Margin | 13.7% | 5.0% | 1.4% | -2.5% |
| FCF Margin | 1.1% | -0.3% | -2.0% | -1.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.16 | $1.06 | -8.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.25 | $0.02 | -98.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.79 | $0.15 | -81.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $-0.05 | -114.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.53 | $0.28 | -47.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.42 | $0.47 | +11.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.32 | $0.46 | +43.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.02 | $-0.03 | -250.0% |
Total return is +199.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +174.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +26.3% | +17.0% | — |
| 1Y | +199.6% | +174.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +77.7% | +61.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +35.2% | +22.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +22.9% | +10.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Century Aluminum Company (CENX) valuation, health, and returns.
Century Aluminum Company is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $44.55)
Century Aluminum Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $44.55 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $56.61 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $76.00 (implying +47.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Century Aluminum Company displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 48/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.5 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.5%.
Century Aluminum Company does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Century Aluminum Company's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +13.9% 1Y revenue growth and -87.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +47.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Century Aluminum Company include: -24.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.58x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.58x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.