MODEL VERDICT
Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $58.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $60.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $62.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $64.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $66.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $109.51 | +85.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $20.80 | -64.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $82.72 | +40.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $13.99 | -76.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $33.02 | -44.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $37.25 | -36.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $82.50 | +39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $89.46 | +51.7% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $48 | $55 | $62 | $68 | $75 |
| Conservative (7%) | $49 | $56 | $63 | $70 | $77 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $58 | $65 | $72 | $80 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $52 | $60 | $67 | $75 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 108.56 | 21.24 | 11.22 | 498.31 | 193.06 |
| P/FFO | 71.45 | 26.79 | 4.28 | 278.06 | 116.13 |
| P/TBV | 2.15 | 1.87 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 1.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.15 | 1.87 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 1.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CENX's fair value at $89.46 vs the current price of $58.98, implying +51.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $89.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.82 (P10) to $173.30 (P90), with a median of $92.19.
CENX's current P/E of 17.9x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -28.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
22 analysts cover CENX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $76.00 (range: $75.00 — $77.00), implying +28.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CENX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.