MODEL VERDICT
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $16.35 | +36.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $13.92 | +16.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $13.92 | +16.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $0.20 | -98.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $16.35 | +36.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $12.22 | +2.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.63 | +30.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 | $20 |
| Conservative (6%) | $7 | $10 | $13 | $17 | $20 |
| Base Case (9.1%) | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $7 | $11 | $14 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.87 | 11.35 | 5.10 | 127.14 | 44.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.05 | 21.54 | 11.41 | 204.08 | 68.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.05 | 21.54 | 11.41 | 204.08 | 68.63 |
| P/FCF | 10.91 | 10.61 | 1.90 | 26.93 | 8.87 |
| P/FFO | 26.80 | 15.83 | 10.95 | 64.59 | 25.43 |
| P/TBV | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.40 | 1.12 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.40 | 1.12 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.80 | 6.04 | 4.11 | 10.94 | 2.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGBD's fair value at $15.63 vs the current price of $11.96, implying +30.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.32 (P10) to $29.34 (P90), with a median of $17.17.
CGBD's current P/E of 7.6x compares to the industry median of 10.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -26.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover CGBD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +25.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CGBD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (50.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25160.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.