Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 (CGBDL)
Valuation Overview•Is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 45/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
CGBDL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($76M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 34.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.9M | +31.6% | — | — | +13.8% | |
| EBITDA | $3.0M | — | -70.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $0.00 | -100.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | -100.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$31.4M | -369.4% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 31.2% | 75.2% | 75.2% | 72.4% |
| Operating Margin | 34.7% | 79.3% | 79.6% | 69.2% |
| Net Margin | 12.3% | 43.8% | 53.3% | 43.9% |
| FCF Margin | -87.4% | -2.1% | 12.9% | 45.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'25Latest | $0.39 | $0.20 | -48.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.43 | $0.40 | -7.4% | ||
| Q4'23 | — | $0.53 | — |
Total return is +1.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -19.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.0% | -7.3% | — |
| 1Y | +1.3% | -19.5% | +2.0% |
| 3YCAGR | +5.1% | -14.2% | +14.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +3.0% | -8.5% | +14.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.5% | -12.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.0x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 (CGBDL) valuation, health, and returns.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -74.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $6.47)
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $6.47 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.62. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 45/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 1/9.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 pays a 6.7% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +31.6% 1Y revenue growth and -100.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 8.20% Notes due 2028 include: -5.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.08x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.