Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (CHA) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-91M | $801M | $2.5B | $3.2B | $6.3B | $11.3B | $15.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.79 | $4.36 | $13.71 | $17.70 | $34.10 | $61.37 | $86.43 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | +214.2% | +29.2% | +92.6% | +80.0% | +40.8% |
| Net Margin | -18.5% | 17.3% | 20.3% | 19.2% | 24.3% | 29.1% | 33.3% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $17.0B | $25.8B | $38.7B | $47.6B |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $3.2B | $6.3B | $11.3B | $15.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $13.71 | $17.70 | $34.10 | $61.37 | $86.43 |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $3.3B | $6.4B | $11.5B | $16.1B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $17.70. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 21/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares: Bear case $-378, Base case $187, and Bull case $153. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 27.8%, reaching approximately $17.0B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 21/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares's forward operating margin is estimated at 20.0% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-378) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 1058.7% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 17% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.