MODEL VERDICT
Chemed Corporation (CHE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $422.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $421.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $384.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $377.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $385.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $408.41 | -3.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $350.78 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $381.29 | -9.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $439.85 | +4.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $396.63 | -6.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $661.73 | +56.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $437.63 | +3.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $379.87 | -10.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $381.04 | -9.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $442.12 | +4.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $460.50 | +9.1% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $357 | $395 | $432 | $470 | $507 |
| Conservative (5%) | $367 | $406 | $445 | $484 | $522 |
| Base Case (-1.1%) | $346 | $383 | $419 | $455 | $492 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $345 | $381 | $417 | $454 | $490 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.30 | 30.88 | 23.23 | 33.00 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.93 | 23.57 | 17.45 | 28.07 | 3.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.21 | 19.57 | 15.48 | 24.69 | 2.91 |
| P/FCF | 26.73 | 29.25 | 18.93 | 33.74 | 6.18 |
| P/FFO | 24.10 | 24.96 | 18.66 | 27.38 | 3.04 |
| P/TBV | 82.55 | 34.76 | 20.55 | 317.42 | 116.29 |
| P/AFFO | 29.21 | 30.65 | 23.05 | 34.23 | 3.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.19 | 9.65 | 6.29 | 13.53 | 2.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.60 | 3.74 | 2.43 | 4.20 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHE's fair value at $460.50 vs the current price of $422.16, implying +9.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $460.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $431.28 (P10) to $504.97 (P90), with a median of $467.06.
CHE's current P/E of 22.9x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +10.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
9 analysts cover CHE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $475.00 (range: $475.00 — $475.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5340.0% to approximately $648. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.