MODEL VERDICT
Chemed Corporation (CHE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $410.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $475.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $473.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $452.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $444.40 | Below threshold | +0.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $417.45 | +1.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $302.24 | -26.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $358.04 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $377.14 | -8.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $333.82 | -18.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $487.77 | +19.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $252.17 | -38.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $166.72 | -59.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $378.88 | -7.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $381.43 | -7.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $432.56 | +5.5% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $338 | $376 | $413 | $451 | $488 |
| Conservative (5%) | $348 | $387 | $426 | $464 | $503 |
| Base Case (-1.1%) | $328 | $364 | $401 | $437 | $474 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $327 | $363 | $399 | $435 | $472 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.30 | 30.88 | 23.23 | 33.00 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.84 | 24.17 | 19.96 | 28.07 | 2.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.63 | 19.57 | 18.42 | 24.69 | 2.25 |
| P/FCF | 26.73 | 29.25 | 18.93 | 33.74 | 6.18 |
| P/FFO | 24.10 | 24.96 | 18.66 | 27.38 | 3.04 |
| P/TBV | 82.55 | 34.76 | 20.55 | 317.42 | 116.29 |
| P/AFFO | 29.21 | 30.65 | 23.05 | 34.23 | 3.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.19 | 9.65 | 6.29 | 13.53 | 2.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.60 | 3.74 | 2.43 | 4.20 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHE's fair value at $432.56 vs the current price of $410.01, implying +5.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $432.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $385.54 (P10) to $471.74 (P90), with a median of $428.26.
CHE's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +14.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
9 analysts cover CHE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $475.00 (range: $475.00 — $475.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5410.0% to approximately $632. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.