MODEL VERDICT
Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $34.09 | +24.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $144.79 | +428.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $115.00 | +320.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $70.77 | +158.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $131.74 | +381.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $60.57 | +121.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $82.29 | +200.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $77.88 | +184.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $84.18 | +207.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $113.20 | +313.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $67.13 | +145.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.60 | +205.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $37 | $37 | $37 | $46 | $64 |
| Conservative (14%) | $38 | $38 | $38 | $48 | $67 |
| Base Case (21.2%) | $41 | $41 | $41 | $51 | $72 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $44 | $44 | $44 | $54 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.85 | 5.42 | 2.53 | 10.33 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.42 | 8.20 | 2.72 | 8.67 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.59 | 2.51 | 1.63 | 4.09 | 0.90 |
| P/FCF | 7.20 | 5.09 | 3.51 | 15.02 | 4.71 |
| P/FFO | 2.63 | 2.40 | 1.57 | 4.55 | 1.04 |
| P/TBV | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.96 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 4.08 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 7.27 | 2.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.96 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.55 | 1.54 | 0.87 | 1.99 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIVI's fair value at $83.60 vs the current price of $27.38, implying +205.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.88 (P10) to $83.03 (P90), with a median of $74.17.
CIVI's current P/E of 3.2x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -76.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover CIVI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $29.00 — $33.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIVI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 36040.0% to approximately $126. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.