MODEL VERDICT
Cool Company Ltd. (CLCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $14.86 | +53.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $74.91 | +674.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $43.97 | +354.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $82.09 | +748.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $22.71 | +134.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $51.30 | +430.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $43.94 | +354.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.99 | +396.3% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $13 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLCO's fair value at $47.99 vs the current price of $9.67, implying +396.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.04 (P10) to $55.09 (P90), with a median of $47.95.
CLCO's current P/E of 5.3x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -78.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover CLCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CLCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (54.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20690.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.