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Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$151.97
→
Intrinsic$188.75
+24%
$125.79$188.75$308.20
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
COKE shows 24% potential upside using 25% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $152, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $126 → Bull $308. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$234$254$275$297
10%$161$175$189$204
12%$121$131$141$153
14%$95$103$111$120

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($308) offers 103% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 19% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (20%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($126) implies 17% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$631.68M
Year 2$789.60M
Year 3$987.00M
Year 4$1.23B
Year 5$1.54B
Terminal$22.69B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$505.34MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is COKE stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

COKE trades at $151.97, within 10% of our $154.90 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $98.66 (bear) to $237.70 (bull).

What is COKE's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $505M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $771M net debt and dividing by 0.09B shares: Bear $98.66 | Base $154.90 | Bull $237.70. Current price $151.97 implies +6% to base case.

How is COKE's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($14.79B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.