Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$202.40
→
Intrinsic$229.94
+14%
$146.56$229.94$388.15
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
COKE appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $202, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $147 → Bull $388. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $290 | $316 | $344 | $373 |
| 10% | $194 | $211 | $230 | $250 |
| 12% | $140 | $153 | $167 | $182 |
| 14% | $106 | $117 | $128 | $139 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($388) offers 92% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- 12% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (22%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($147) implies 28% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$774.49M
Year 2$968.11M
Year 3$1.21B
Year 4$1.51B
Year 5$1.89B
Terminal$27.82B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$619.59MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.