MODEL VERDICT
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $202.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $182.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $161.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $156.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $150.35 | Below threshold | +2.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $186.17 | -8.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $167.66 | -17.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $189.73 | -6.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $205.65 | +1.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $201.04 | -0.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $459.62 | +127.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $176.69 | -12.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $184.65 | -8.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $166.91 | -17.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $185.49 | -8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $191.36 | -5.5% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $198 | $214 | $229 | $244 | $259 |
| Conservative (20%) | $212 | $228 | $244 | $260 | $277 |
| Base Case (30.1%) | $230 | $248 | $266 | $284 | $301 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $249 | $268 | $287 | $306 | $326 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.19 | 21.34 | 11.21 | 142.05 | 46.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.62 | 13.60 | 8.96 | 48.06 | 14.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.18 | 10.68 | 6.62 | 16.28 | 3.19 |
| P/FCF | 18.31 | 20.74 | 8.58 | 22.57 | 5.08 |
| P/FFO | 12.76 | 13.79 | 7.14 | 16.28 | 3.69 |
| P/TBV | 31.26 | 25.15 | 19.59 | 49.03 | 15.64 |
| P/AFFO | 34.44 | 26.95 | 16.79 | 98.71 | 28.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.24 | 6.00 | 4.32 | 8.18 | 1.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.50 | 1.78 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates COKE's fair value at $191.36 vs the current price of $202.40, implying -5.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $191.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.38 (P10) to $221.09 (P90), with a median of $179.08.
COKE's current P/E of 29.7x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +20.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
1 analysts cover COKE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.7% is 3.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.3%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$156. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COKE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2280.0% to approximately $156. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.