MODEL VERDICT
CommScope Holding Company, Inc. (COMM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $74.07 | +315.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $173.17 | +871.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $28.00 | +57.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $111.15 | +523.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $102.97 | +477.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $137.08 | +669.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $27.98 | +57.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.52 | +318.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 162.01 | 35.80 | 16.30 | 433.91 | 235.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.07 | 10.83 | 7.75 | 14.17 | 2.47 |
| P/FCF | 7.66 | 6.68 | 2.51 | 17.19 | 5.14 |
| P/FFO | 9.41 | 8.75 | 6.66 | 13.47 | 3.24 |
| P/AFFO | 14.90 | 15.54 | 8.04 | 20.49 | 6.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.70 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates COMM's fair value at $74.52 vs the current price of $17.82, implying +318.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.64 (P10) to $106.26 (P90), with a median of $77.17.
COMM's current P/E of -10.0x compares to the industry median of 82.8x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -112.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover COMM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.57 (range: $7.00 — $25.00), implying -7.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for COMM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.