MODEL VERDICT
CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $34.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $36.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $39.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $39.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $36.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 4 REIT peers | $21.02 | -39.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $12.95 | -62.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $55.31 | +59.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $0.53 | -98.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $50.92 | +46.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $41.80 | +20.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $23.08 | -33.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.75 | +23.1% | 100% | 69 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1758× | 1925× | 2092× (Current) | 2259× | 2426× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Base Case (-51.0%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (-69%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 681.75 | 106.80 | 69.57 | 4050.60 | 1486.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 966.98 | 111.42 | 57.75 | 5437.40 | 1996.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 90.81 | 80.69 | 45.64 | 168.57 | 53.35 |
| P/FCF | 175.15 | 76.81 | 53.25 | 689.95 | 252.39 |
| P/FFO | 82.93 | 73.74 | 55.32 | 113.61 | 23.01 |
| P/TBV | 11.75 | 10.54 | 6.36 | 19.88 | 5.29 |
| P/AFFO | 89.28 | 84.89 | 62.63 | 119.79 | 23.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.01 | 4.85 | 3.39 | 6.59 | 1.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.43 | 14.48 | 8.71 | 21.35 | 4.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSGP's fair value at $42.75 vs the current price of $34.72, implying +23.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.37 (P10) to $48.69 (P90), with a median of $41.83.
CSGP's current P/E of 2091.6x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +6477.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 681.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover CSGP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $61.91 (range: $44.00 — $84.00), implying +78.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CSGP trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (681.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSGP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 45650.0% to approximately $193. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.