Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$79.90
→
Intrinsic$57.37
-28%
$34.71$57.37$100.44
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
CSGS trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $80, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $35 → Bull $100. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $71 | $78 | $87 | $96 |
| 10% | $46 | $52 | $57 | $64 |
| 12% | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 |
| 14% | $24 | $27 | $31 | $34 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($100) offers 26% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($35) implies 57% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 15% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 28% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$122.36M
Year 2$132.15M
Year 3$142.72M
Year 4$154.14M
Year 5$166.47M
Terminal$2.45B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$113.30MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.