MODEL VERDICT
CSG Systems International, Inc. (CSGS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $79.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $79.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $79.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $79.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $79.51 | Pending | +0.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $79.90 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $89.08 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $69.25 | -13.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $57.92 | -27.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $63.19 | -20.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $49.14 | -38.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $13.81 | -82.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $124.62 | +56.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $123.62 | +54.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $70.51 | -11.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $60.32 | -24.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.39 | -15.7% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $68 | $74 | $80 | $87 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $70 | $76 | $83 | $89 | $95 |
| Base Case (3.5%) | $69 | $75 | $82 | $88 | $94 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $70 | $76 | $82 | $89 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.00 | 24.19 | 15.81 | 40.57 | 8.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.99 | 16.26 | 11.78 | 27.55 | 5.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 | 10.26 | 7.62 | 13.66 | 1.82 |
| P/FCF | 21.27 | 14.78 | 10.13 | 67.29 | 20.40 |
| P/FFO | 11.34 | 11.58 | 8.22 | 14.79 | 2.17 |
| P/AFFO | 15.31 | 14.93 | 10.70 | 21.31 | 3.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.41 | 4.24 | 2.89 | 5.86 | 1.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.19 | 1.76 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSGS's fair value at $67.39 vs the current price of $79.90, implying -15.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.64 (P10) to $90.48 (P90), with a median of $74.22.
CSGS's current P/E of 26.4x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +15.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
15 analysts cover CSGS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.70 (range: $80.70 — $80.70), implying +1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CSGS trades at the 5780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSGS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1720.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.